EchoStar (NASDAQ: ECHO, ticker SATS through June 24, 2026) is a satellite, pay-TV, and wireless company. AT&T closed July 28, 2026 — $20.25B cash to EchoStar plus $2.4B to the FCC Wireless Creditor Trust. The remaining swing asset is a contractual 261.8M SpaceX shares, marked to live public SPCX and delivered ~November 30, 2027. Two Chapter 11 estates sit below the parent: DISH DBS / DISH Wireless (prepack June 30; confirmation hearing October 13, 2026) and Hughes Satellite Systems US (free-fall August 2, case 26-90739). Parent, Boost, DISH TV, Sling, Hughes international, and the SpaceX claim sit outside both cases. This SOTP marks the SPCX delivery against remaining spectrum, post-AT&T cash, three operating stubs, C-corp tax, and tower leases. Defaults are filed terms; sliders test your thesis.
How this works in 30 seconds
The core asset is the contractual 261.8M SpaceX shares (post-split) delivered ~November 30, 2027. SPCX is already public; ECHO does not hold the stock yet.
We apply haircuts: a delivery/lockup discount (default 10% — not a private-block haircut), then close-probability × present value to the 2027 delivery date.
We add other parts: residual spectrum (700 MHz / CBRS / other — not AWS-3), post-AT&T net cash, Boost, DISH DBS, and Hughes parent equity.
We subtract liabilities: C-corp tax on $42.25B of spectrum proceeds, split between realized AT&T and contingent SpaceX; tower leases; and an optional DISH distress overlay if the prepack is contested.
We compare the final NAVagainst ECHO's live price to get the implied proxy discount and the effective price paid for SpaceX.
⚠️ Charlie Ergen Key-Man & Governance Risk
Charlie Ergen (73, controlling shareholder) holds super-voting shares, giving him total control of ECHO. He recently skipped the Q1 earnings call, sparking retail governance concerns. All deals, restructuring steps, and cash distributions are dependent on Ergen.
🕒 Multi-Year Closing Delay (Nov 2027)
The SpaceX equity block is not delivered until closing, expected ~November 30, 2027. ECHO is highly exposed to macro downturns, restructuring surprises, or SpaceX re-rates in the intervening 1.5+ years before ECHO actually holds the liquid stock.
📉 Proxy-Unwind Demand Drop
SPCX is already public. ECHO still trades as a delayed-delivery proxy: the 261.8M block does not arrive until ~November 30, 2027. The relevant risk is tracking error and lockup, not a private-block discount. If ECHO's spread to SPCX collapses, the proxy thesis dies.
○ DEFAULT
Basic is 159,142,240 Class A + 131,348,468 Class B as of July 21, 2026 (10-Q). Diluted adds Barron's convertibles overlay; the 3.875% notes are in the money.
Preset Scenarios
VISUAL 01
ECHO SOTP Bridge ($ / Share)
🔍 Click to enlarge
VISUAL 02
NAV Sensitivity Matrix
🔍 Click to enlarge
SPCX / Tax
0%
10%
15%
20%
25%
28%
👉 $135 (IPO)
$158
+79%
$147
+66%
$141
+59%
$135
+53%
$130
+46%
$126
+43%
$155
$172
+94%
$160
+81%
$154
+74%
$149
+68%
$143
+61%
$140
+58%
$175
$185
+109%
$173
+96%
$168
+89%
$162
+83%
$156
+76%
$153
+73%
$195
$198
+124%
$187
+111%
$181
+104%
$175
+98%
$170
+91%
$166
+88%
$215
$211
+139%
$200
+126%
$194
+119%
$188
+113%
$183
+106%
$179
+102%
$235
$225
+154%
$213
+141%
$207
+134%
$202
+128%
$196
+121%
$193
+117%
$255
$238
+168%
$226
+156%
$221
+149%
$215
+143%
$209
+136%
$206
+132%
*Shaded by upside (green) or downside (red) vs. today's ECHO price of $88.58. Selected active model cell highlighted with orange border.
Reconcile your model's outputs against reported Wall Street targets. Cowen and Barron's apply a tax haircut to the spectrum gain; Citi (7/8/26) applies a discount to the SpaceX stake. Across 7 covering analysts the average target is ~$146 (57% rate Buy):
Anchor Target Source
SPCX Price
SpaceX Stake
ECHO Target NAV
Model Variance
TD Cowen (Greg Williams, May 2026)
~$118 (implied)
$31.0B
$155.00
-22.84
Barron's Sanity Case (6/12/26 Article)
~$175
$45.8B
$185.00 - $190.00
-55.34 vs mid
Citi (Michael Rollins, 7/8/26)
$200 (Citi SpaceX value)
$52.4B (pre-discount)
$126.00
+6.16
Your Risk-Adjusted Model (Active)
$138.62
$26.68B
$132.16
—
*Note: To align with Barron's ~$185–190/sh, use the Diluted share-count toggle (convertibles), set SPCX to $175, and pick the Bull preset (15% tax; 10% delivery/lockup, not a 20% private-block haircut).
01
SpaceX Equity Stake (The Swing Factor)
Haircut the undelivered public SPCX block (lockup, not private)
Asset component
Shares / Price
Value ($B)
$/ECHO Share
Tag
Gross SpaceX Consideration
Fixed block of post-split Class A SpaceX shares. (S-1 Note F-26)
261.8M @ $139
$36.29B
$124.93
[VERIFIED]
Delivery / lockup discount
SPCX is public. This haircut is for shares not yet delivered (~Nov 30, 2027), not a private-block discount.
10%
—
-$3.63B
-$12.49
[ESTIMATE]
Closing Probability & Timing Haircut
Stake delivers ~Nov 30, 2027. Discount for close probability (FCC approved, DOJ pending) + time-value-of-money.
Close Prob90%
Discount Rate8%
0.90x prob · 1.26 yr PV
-$5.98B
-$20.58
[ESTIMATE]
Net Risk-Adjusted SpaceX Stake
$26.68B
$91.86
02
Other SOTP Parts (Spectrum & Operations)
Adjust assets that back ECHO operating stub
Asset component
Filing baseline
Model Value ($B)
$/ECHO Share
Tag
Remaining Spectrum Holdings
Licenses not in the closed AT&T sale or the SpaceX LPA (700 MHz, CBRS, other). AWS-3 is in the SpaceX deal, not residual.
$11.0B
$11.0B
$11.00B
$37.87
[ESTIMATE]
Post-AT&T Net Cash
Ergen stack: ~$14.5B gross cash after the 7/28 AT&T close, minus $2.4B FCC Wireless Creditor Trust, minus ~$5B residual Holdco debt SpaceX does not take out. Seller Notes (~$9.8B) are repaid from SpaceX consideration in section 01 — not subtracted here.
$7.1B
$7.1B sourced
$7.10B
$24.44
[ESTIMATE]
Boost Mobile (going concern)
MVNO outside both Chapter 11 estates. Ergen: slightly FCF-positive.
$4.0B
$4.0B
$4.00B
$13.77
[ESTIMATE]
DISH DBS (prepack Ch. 11)
Pay-TV estate. Default near the ~$300M stalking-horse, not a $6B going-concern.
$0.3B
$0.3B SH
$300.0M
$1.03
[ESTIMATE]
Hughes parent equity (free-fall Ch. 11)
HSSC petition 2 Aug 2026, case 26-90739. Parent, DISH TV, Sling, Boost, Hughes international are out. Default $0.
$0.0B
$0 recovery
$0
$0.00
[ESTIMATE]
Pre-Tax NAV (Discounted SpaceX + Others)
$49.08B
$168.97
03
Risk Deductions (Tax & Credit Default Overlay)
Model the heavy drags Wall Street ignores
⚠️ TWO CHAPTER 11 ESTATES — PARENT OUTSIDE BOTH: DISH DBS and DISH Wireless filed a prepack June 30, 2026 (parent and SpaceX claim outside). AT&T closed July 28: $20.25B cash to EchoStar, $2.4B to the FCC Wireless Creditor Trust, DBS 7.75% 2026 notes repaid, ~$3.5B of DISH 11.75% 2027s redeemed. Wireless confirmation hearing October 13, 2026. Hughes Satellite Systems + US subs filed a free-fall Chapter 11 August 2 (case 26-90739); no RSA. Parent, DISH TV, Sling, Boost, Hughes international, and the SpaceX claim are not in that case. Your toggle below assumes the prepack exits on plan — no haircut applied.
Deduction component
Inputs
Deduction ($B)
$/ECHO Share
Tag
Corporate C-Corp Tax on Spectrum Gain
AT&T's $22.65B of the $42.25B proceeds closed July 28 — that tax is realized. SpaceX's $19.6B slice is still contingent; we haircut that tax by close-prob × PV.
Spectrum Tax Basis$B
Available NOLs$B
Effective Tax Rate25%
AT&T realized $4.86B SpaceX PV $3.43B Gain $36.25B
-$8.29B
-$28.55
[ESTIMATE]
Tower Lease Termination Costs
EchoStar must terminate or reassign long-term tower site leases as part of the spectrum transaction wind-down. Estimated liability per Barron's.
Tower Lease Liability$2.40B
Lease breakage costs
-$2.40B
-$8.26
[ ESTIMATE]
Restructuring Haircut / Chapter 11 overlay
Haircut if the DISH prepack is contested or prolonged. AT&T has closed — this is not an AT&T-delay overlay. Wireless confirmation hearing October 13, 2026.
On-plan prepack exit
$0
$0.00
[REPORTED]
Simulate Deal Break (Pre-deal Distress Net Debt)
Historical counterfactual: AT&T already closed July 28. Checking this reverts cash to pre-deal net debt of -27.7B as if the sale never closed. Seller Notes are not part of this toggle.
Pro-forma deal active
—
[DISTRESS]
04
ECHO SOTP Outputs & Implied SpaceX Price
Compare Pre-tax vs. Risk-Adjusted values
PRE-TAX SOTP VALUE
$49,084,339,249
$168.97/ ECHO share
Upside vs ECHO Price:91%
Premium/Discount to NAV:-48%
Effective SPCX Price Paid:$21.89
*Pre-tax SOTP NAV ignores corporate taxes on the spectrum transfer gain, tower lease termination costs, and DBS default distress overlays.
RISK-ADJUSTED SOTP VALUE
$38,391,226,099
$132.16/ ECHO share
Upside vs ECHO Price:49%
Premium/Discount to NAV:-33%
Effective SPCX Price Paid:$53.57
*Risk-adjusted SOTP NAV includes C-corp tax drag on gain, tower lease termination costs, and credit distress default adjustments.
ⓘ
About ECHO share count
Default basic shares are 290.5M from the 10-Q as of July 21, 2026: 159,142,240 Class A + 131,348,468 Class B. Diluted (304.4M) is Barron's convertibles overlay; the 3.875% notes are in the money.
ⓘ
About the spectrum tax
C-corp stock-for-asset exchanges are taxable at the corporate level. We split the $42.25B of proceeds: AT&T $22.65B is realized (closed July 28); SpaceX $19.6B is still contingent, so that tax is × close-prob × PV. Basis default $5.0B and NOLs $1.0B at 25%. Moon preset is 0% (trust deferral case).